Li et al reported a model for predicting nasopharyngeal necrosis (NPN) following radiation therapy of a nasopharyngeal carcinoma. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China and Sun-Yat-sen University Cancer Center in Guangzhou.
Patient selection: nasopharyngeal carcinoma treated with radiation
Clinical features of post-radiation necrosis: foul nasal smell, refractory headache, necrotic secretions
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) pathological type (WHO) - type I (keratinizing), type II (non-keratinizing), type III (undifferentiated)
(3) diabetes
(4) T stage
(5) RT technique (2-dimensional radiotherapy vs intensity-modulated radiotherapy)
(6) re-radiotherapy
(7) CRP in mg/L
(8) hemoglobin in g/L
(9) serum albumin in g/L
NOTE: The nomogram lacked clear designations. The following is based on best guess.
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
age in years |
<= 46 years |
0 |
|
> 46 years |
8.5 |
pathological type |
WHO I or II |
27.5 |
|
WHO III |
0 |
diabetes |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
27.1 |
T stage |
1 or 2 |
0 |
|
3 or 4 |
18.6 |
RT technique |
2DRT |
0 |
|
IMRT |
27.5 |
re-radiotherapy |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
100 |
CRP |
< 1 mg/L |
0 |
|
1 to 3 mg/L |
22.5 |
|
>= 3 mg/L |
28 |
hemoglobin |
< 110 |
76.7 |
|
110 to 150 |
29.1 |
|
> 150 |
0 |
serum albumin |
>= 35 g/L |
0 |
|
< 35 g/L |
58.1 |
total score =
= SUM(point for all 9 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 372
• The higher the score the greater the risk for necrosis.
Score |
Risk of Necrosis |
< 46.5 |
< 1% |
46.5 to 161.5 |
(0.00001672 * ((score)^2)) - (0.001895 * (score)) + 0.06571 |
161.6 to 262.8 |
(0.006127 * (score)) - 0.8004 |
> 262.8 |
> 80% |
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.78.
Specialty: Hematology Oncology