Description

Li et al reported a model for predicting nasopharyngeal necrosis (NPN) following radiation therapy of a nasopharyngeal carcinoma. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China and Sun-Yat-sen University Cancer Center in Guangzhou.


Patient selection: nasopharyngeal carcinoma treated with radiation

 

Clinical features of post-radiation necrosis: foul nasal smell, refractory headache, necrotic secretions

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) pathological type (WHO) - type I (keratinizing), type II (non-keratinizing), type III (undifferentiated)

(3) diabetes

(4) T stage

(5) RT technique (2-dimensional radiotherapy vs intensity-modulated radiotherapy)

(6) re-radiotherapy

(7) CRP in mg/L

(8) hemoglobin in g/L

(9) serum albumin in g/L

 

NOTE: The nomogram lacked clear designations. The following is based on best guess.

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

<= 46 years

0

 

> 46 years

8.5

pathological type

WHO I or II

27.5

 

WHO III

0

diabetes

no

0

 

yes

27.1

T stage

1 or 2

0

 

3 or 4

18.6

RT technique

2DRT

0

 

IMRT

27.5

re-radiotherapy

no

0

 

yes

100

CRP

< 1 mg/L

0

 

1 to 3 mg/L

22.5

 

>= 3 mg/L

28

hemoglobin

< 110

76.7

 

110 to 150

29.1

 

> 150

0

serum albumin

>= 35 g/L

0

 

< 35 g/L

58.1

 

total score =

= SUM(point for all 9 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

minimum score: 0

maximum score: 372

The higher the score the greater the risk for necrosis.

 

Score

Risk of Necrosis

< 46.5

< 1%

46.5 to 161.5

(0.00001672 * ((score)^2)) - (0.001895 * (score)) + 0.06571

161.6 to 262.8

(0.006127 * (score)) - 0.8004

> 262.8

> 80%

 

Performance:

The area under the ROC curve is 0.78.


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