Lee et al reported a model for predicting the risk of myocardial infarction in an adult type 2 diabetic in South Korea. The authors are from Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea, Soongsil University and Yeouido St. Mary's Hospital in South Korea.
Patient selection: adult type 2 diabetic in Korea, from 40 to 64 years of age
Outcome: 5-year risk of myocardial infarction
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) current smoking
(4) regular exercise
(5) body mass index (BMI) in kilograms per square meter
(6) chronic kidney disease
(7) duration of diabetes in years
(8) number and type of diabetic medications
(9) fasting blood glucose in mg/dL
(10) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(11) serum total cholesterol in mg/dL
(12) atrial fibrillation
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points from Nomogram |
|
age |
40 to 49 years |
0 |
|
|
50 to 59 years |
58.7 |
|
|
60 to 64 years |
100 |
|
sex |
female |
0 |
|
|
male |
40.8 |
|
current smoking |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
71.5 |
|
regular exercise |
no |
30.1 |
|
|
yes |
0 |
|
body mass index |
< 18.5 kg per sq m |
11.9 |
|
|
18.5 to 22.99 |
6.2 |
|
|
>= 23 kg per sq m |
0 |
|
chronic kidney disease |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
77.4 |
|
number of medications |
0 or 1 |
0 |
|
|
>= 2 |
38.6 |
|
|
insulin |
38.6 |
|
duration of diabetes |
< 5 years |
0 |
|
|
>= 5 years |
40.7 |
|
fasting blood glucose |
< 100 mg/dL |
27.8 |
|
|
100 to 139 mg/dL |
0 |
|
|
140 to 159 mg/dL |
2.8 |
|
|
160 to 179 mg/dL |
15.2 |
|
|
>= 180 mg/dL |
41.5 |
|
systolic blood pressure |
< 130 mm Hg |
0 |
|
|
130 to 139 mm Hg |
12.1 |
|
|
140 to 149 mm Hg |
25.9 |
|
|
150 to 159 mm Hg |
29.5 |
|
|
>= 160 mm Hg |
49.9 |
|
total cholesterol |
< 160 mg/dL |
0 |
|
|
160 to 199 |
12.1 |
|
|
200 to 239 |
39 |
|
|
>= 240 mg/dL |
74.4 |
|
atrial fibrillation |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
73.7 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 650.5
• The higher the greater the risk of a myocardial infarction.
X =
= (0.000003506 * ((score)^2)) + (0.003173 * (score)) - 4.906
probability of myocardial infarction within the next 5 years =
Specialty: Cardiology
