Lee et al developed a model for predicting the risk of coronary heart disease within 10 years. The population studied had a high prevalence of diabetes and albuminuria. The authors are from the University of Oklahoma, MedStar Research Institute and the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute at NIH.
Patient selection: age 45 to 74 years, from Indian tribes with a high risk of diabetes
probability of being coronary heart disease free at 10 years =
= ([S0(10) baseline survival] ^ X
probability of developing coronary heart disease within 10 years =
= 1 - (([S0(10) baseline survival] ^ X)
Parameters:
(1) gender
(2) age
(3) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(4) LDL cholesterol in mg/dL
(5) total cholesterol in mg/dL
(6) HDL cholesterol in mg/dL
(7) diabetes mellitus
(8) current smoking
(9) hypertension medication
(10) microalbuminuria
(11) macroalbuminuria
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
diabetes mellitus |
absent |
0 |
|
present |
1 |
current smoking |
absent |
0 |
|
present |
1 |
hypertension medication |
absent |
0 |
|
present |
1 |
microalbuminuria |
absent |
0 |
|
present |
1 |
macroalbuminuria |
absent |
0 |
|
present |
1 |
where:
• Microalbuminuria and macroalbuminuria are mutually exclusive.
X for male using LDL-C =
= (0.0492 * (age in years)) + (0.0094 * (systolic blood pressure)) + (0.0106 * (LDL cholesterol)) - (0.0166 * (HDL cholesterol)) + (0.1776 * (points for hypertension therapy)) + (0.5105 * (points for diabetes)) + (0.3117 * (points for current smoking)) + (0.3087 * (points for microalbuminuria)) + (0.6965 * (points for macroalbuminuria))
X for female using LDL-C =
= (0.0382 * (age in years)) + (0.0049 * (systolic blood pressure)) + (0.0064 * (LDL cholesterol)) - (0.0122 * (HDL cholesterol)) + (0.3632 * (points for hypertension therapy)) + (0.7803 * (points for diabetes)) + (0.3624 * (points for current smoking)) + (0.2693 * (points for microalbuminuria)) + (0.9645 * (points for macroalbuminuria))
X for male using total cholesterol =
= (0.0485 * (age in years)) + (0.0088 * (systolic blood pressure)) + (0.0039 * (total cholesterol)) - (0.0152 * (HDL cholesterol)) + (0.1996 * (points for hypertension therapy)) + (0.4469 * (points for diabetes)) + (0.2914 * (points for current smoking)) + (0.2017 * (points for microalbuminuria)) + (0.6581 * (points for macroalbuminuria))
X for female using total cholesterol =
= (0.0383 * (age in years)) + (0.0048 * (systolic blood pressure)) + (0.0067 * (total cholesterol)) - (0.0133 * (HDL cholesterol)) + (0.3393 * (points for hypertension therapy)) + (0.7816 * (points for diabetes)) + (0.3590 * (points for current smoking)) + (0.2498 * (points for microalbuminuria)) + (0.8658 * (points for macroalbuminuria))
Gender |
Cholesterol |
S0(10) |
male |
LDL |
0.9986 |
female |
LDL |
0.9971 |
male |
total |
0.9973 |
female |
total |
0.9982 |
The calculator is available at the Strong Heart website (strongheart.ouhc.edu)
Specialty: Cardiology
ICD-10: ,