### Description

Lee et al developed a model for predicting the risk of a prolonged air leak following lung resective surgery. These can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from McGill University in Montreal.

Parameters:

(1) type of lung resection

(3) observed FEV1 as percent of predicted (from 0 to 100)

(4) observed DLco as percent of predicted (from 0 to 100)

observed FEV1 as percent of predicted =

= (observed FEV1) / (predicted) * 100%

observed DLco as percent of predicted =

= (observed DLco) / (predicted) * 100%

If the lung resection was limited to a wedge resection, then the risk of a prolonged air leak was 4.8%. If a larger resection was performed then a logistic regression model can be used.

X =

= (-0.483 if pleural adhesions present) - (0.026 * (100 - (FEV1 as percent of predicted)) - (0.013 * (100 - (DLco as percent of predicted)) + 2.42

probability of not having a prolonged air leak =

= 1/ (1 + EXP((-1) * X)

probability of having a prolonged air leak =

= 1 - (1/ (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

This can also be represented as a score:

Parameter

Finding

Points

absent

0

present

2

points for FEV1 =

= (100 - (FEV1 as percent of predicted)) / 10

points for DLco =

= (100 - (DLco as percent of predicted)) / 20

total score =

= (points ofr pleural adhesions) + (points for FEV1) + (points for DLco)

Total Score

Percent with Air Leak

0

8.2%

1

10.2%

2

12.8%

3

15.8%

4

19.5%

5

23.7%

6

28.5%

7

33.8%

8

39.7%

9

45.8%

10

52%

11

58.2%

The equation for this is:

risk in percent =

= (0.2371 * ((score)^2)) + (2.023 * (score)) + 7.895

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