Lee et al reported a model for short-term mortality for a patient with acute variceal bleeding. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from The Catholic University of Korea.
Patient selection: acute variceal bleeding
Outcome: 6-week mortality
Parameters:
(1) serum CRP in mg/dL
(2) serum total bilirubin in mg/dL
(3) INR
Parameter
Points
serum CRP
0.2333 * (CRP)
serum total bilirubin
0.148 * (bilirubin)
INR
1.4388 * (INR)
X =
= SUM(points for all 3 parameters) - 5.3076
probability of mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.83.
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