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Model of Lai et al for Necrotizing Soft Tissue Infection Following a Naja atra Bite

Description

Lai et al reported a model for predicting the need for surgical debridement following the bite of the Chinese cobra Naja atra. The authors are from multiple institutions in Taiwan.


Outcomes: wound necrosis and/or necrotizing infection requiring surgery

 

Parameters:

(1) bite site

(2) swelling grade of Blaylock, from 0 to 4

(3) bullae or blister formation

(4) gastrointestinal effects (vomiting, diarrhea, other)

(5) fever

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

bite site

leg

1

 

other

0

swelling grade

0 to 2

0

 

3 or 4

1

bullae or blisters

no

0

 

yes

2

gastrointestinal effects

no

0

 

yes

1

fever

no

0

 

yes

2

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 7

• A score >= 3 indicates the need for surgery.

 

Performance:

• The cutoff had a sensitivity was 0.72 and specificity 0.89.

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.88.


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