Kim et al reported a model for predicting pulmonary adverse events for a pediatric patient with an upper respiratory tract infection prior to surgery. The authors are from Korea University.
Patient selection: pediatric patient (< 18 years) with clinical upper respiratory tract infection prior to elective surgery
Pulmonary adverse events include persistent cough, apnea, hypoxemia, laryngospasm, bronchospasm
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) COLDS score of Lee and August, from 5 to 25
(3) ongoing symptoms of an upper respiratory tract infection (nasal congestion, rhinorrhea, cough, fever)
Parameter
Odds Ratio
LN(OR)
Points
age
0.855
-0.156
-0.156 * (age)
COLDS score
1.223
0.201
0.201 * (COLDS)
ongoing symptoms present
2.999
1.1
1.1
constant
0.040
-3.21
-3.21
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
probability pulmonary adverse events =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.65 which is suboptimal.
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