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Model of Jones et al for Prognosis in Paraquat Poisoning

Description

Jones et al reported a score for predicting mortality in a patient who has ingested paraquat. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Guy's and St. Thomas' Hospital Trust and the University of Edinburgh.


Patient selection: paraquat ingestion

 

Parameters:

(1) number of hours since ingestion

(2) plasma paraquat concentration in mg/L (µg/mL)

 

X =

= 0.58 - (1.15 * LOG10(hours)) - (2.33 * LOG10(plasma concentration))

 

probability of survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))


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