Ireland et al reported a predictive model for Barrett's esophagus for patients in Australia. The authors are from University of South Australia, University of Adelaide, Keele University, Flinders University and James Cook University.
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) history of hypertension
(4) history of reflux
(5) family history of reflux
(6) number of alcoholic drinks per week
(7) body mass index (BMI)
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
0.0645714 * (age)
sex
female
0
male
0.8431104
history of hypertension
no
0
yes
-0.9861185
history of reflux
no
0
yes
1.051748
family history of reflux
no
0
yes
1.186615
alcoholic drinks per week
does not drink
0
<= 4
0.2971902
5 to 13
0.5943804
14 to 27
0.8915706
>= 28
1.1887604
BMI
< 25
0
25 to 29.99
0.6125564
>= 30
1.2251128
X =
= SUM(points for all 7 parameters) - 7.003635
probability of Barrett's esophagus =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.82.
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