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Model of Hyder et al for 90-Day Mortality After Hepatic Resection

Description

Hyder et al developed a model for predicting 90-day mortality following hepatic resection. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management or an alternative therapy. The authors are from Johns Hopkins University and Ospedale San Raffaele in Milan.


Patient selection: hepatic resection

 

Outcome: 90-day mortality

 

Parameters:

(1) INR on day 3

(2) complication grade (from 0 to 4)

(3) serum total bilirubin on day 3 in mg/dL

(4) serum creatinine on day 3 in mg/dL

 

score =

= (2.5 * (INR)) + (1.5 * (complication grade)) + (1.5 * (bilirubin)) + (0.5 * (creatinine))

 

Interpretation:

• A score >= 11 had a sensitivity of 83% and specificity of 99% for mortality.

 

Score

Mortality

< 5.9

0.2%

6.0 to 8.9

1.2%

9 to 10.9

34.3%

>= 11

83%

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve wass 0.93.


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