Huang et al developed a simple model for predicting traumatic aortic rupture based on findings seen on a routine chest radiograph. The authors are from Foothills Hospital and the University of Calgary in Alberta, Canada.
Parameters:
(1) tracheal position
(2) contour of the aorta
(3) mediastinal to chest ratio at the level of the aortic arch
mediastinal to chest ratio as a decimal fraction =
= (horizontal width of the mediastinum in cm) / (horizontal width of the chest in cm)
Parameter
Finding
Points
tracheal position
normal
-1
deviated
+1
contour of the aorta
preserved
-1
lost
+1
X =
= (-9.5 * (points for aorta contour)) - (1.48 * (points for tracheal deviation)) - (109 * (mediastinal to chest ratio)) + 46.4
probability of traumatic aortic rupture =
= 1 / (EXP(X))
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