Haggie et al reported a model for predicting severe pneumonia in a young pediatric patient. This can help to separate patients by risk. The authors are from Children's Hospital at Westmead and University of Sydney in Australia.
Patient selection: pediatric patient from 1 to 5 years with pneumonia
Parameters:
(1) number of comorbid conditions
(2) work of breathing
(3) SaO2 in percent
(4) ethnicity
(5) weight for age
(6) tachycardia
Parameter
Finding
Points
number of comorbid conditions
>= 4
6
2 or 3
3
0 or 1
0
work of breathing
moderate or severe increase
4
mild increase
1
normal
0
SaO2
>= 91%
0
< 91%
4
ethnicity
indigenous
4
other
0
weight for age
< 3rd percentile
2
3rd to 97th
0
> 97th percentile
2
tachycardia
moderate to severe
1
mild
0
none
0
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 21
Score
Risk Group
Moderate or Severe Outcome
0 or 1
low
4%
2 to 4
intermediate
8%
>= 5
high
23%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.72.
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