Model of Guarner et al for Predicting Risk of Community-Acquired Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis in a Patient with Cirrhosis

 

Patient selection: cirrhosis and ascites, with a low ascitic fluid protein

 

Parameters:

(1) platelet count per µL

(2) total serum bilirubin in mg/dL

 

X =

= (0.175 * ((total serum bilirubin) - 3.9)) - (0.011 * (((platelet count) / 1000) - 111))

 

relative risk =

= EXP(X)

 

Interpretation:

• A relative risk < 1.09 indicates low risk.

• A relative risk >= 1.09 indicates a high risk (on page 416 the high risk group is given as RR > 1.09, but a RR of 1.09 is not assigned to a group).

Risk Group	Risk of Community-Acquired SBP at 1 Year	Survival at 1 Year
low	14%	60%
high	48%	38%