Grobman et al reported a model for predicting vaginal birth after cesarean delivery for a woman with a germ gestation. The authors are from multiple institutions in the United States.
Patient selection: pregnant woman with history of cesarean delivery
Parameters:
(1) age of the mother in years
(2) prepregnancy weight in kilograms
(3) height in cm
(4) indication for previous cesarean delivery
(5) previous vaginal delivery
(6) treated chronic hypertension
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
-0.023 * (age)
weight
-0.024 * (weight)
height
0.056 * (height)
indication for previous cesarean
arrest
-0.597
other
0
previous vaginal delivery
only before cesarean
0.868
after cesarean (VBAC)
1.869
neither
0
treated chronic hypertension
no
0
yes
-0.966
where:
• An arrest disorder refers to the arrest of dilatation or descent and/or induction failure.
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 5.952
probability of vaginal delivery =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.75.
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