Model of Grayson et al for Predicting Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) After a Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Description

Grayson et al reported a multivariate prediction model for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the Cardiothoracic Centre Liverpool, Blackpool Victoria Hospital, Manchester Royal Infirmary and South Manchester University Hospital.

Patient selection: PCI

MACE: in-hospital deaths, Q wave AMI, emergency CABG, cerebrovascular accident

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) sex

(3) cerebrovascular disease

(4) cardiogenic shock

(5) acuity for the PCI

(6) left main stem (LMS) lesion treated

(7) graft lesion treated

Parameter	Finding	Points
age in years	< 70	0
	70-79	0.7048
	>= 80	1.0106
sex	male	0
	female	0.4586
cerebrovascular disease	no	0
	yes	0.8618
cardiogenic shock	no	0
	yes	3.2636
acuity for the PCI	elective	0
	urgent	0.4788
	emergency	1.4625
left main stem lesion treated	no	0
	yes	1.6502
graft lesion treated	no	0
	yes	0.9101

X =

= SUM(points for all 7 parameters) - 5.4959

probability of MACE =

= 1/(1+ EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.76.

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Model of Grayson et al for Predicting Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) After a Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Description

Specialty