Model of Grant et al for Predicting In-Hospital Death Following Elective Repair of an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (British Aneurysm Repair Score)

Description

Grant et al developed a model for predicting in-hospital mortality following an elective repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm. This can help guide patient management, especially in high risk patients. The authors are from the University of Manchester, University Hospital of South Manchester, Northwest Institute for Bio-Health Informatics, Liverpool Heart and Chest Hospital and the Vascular Audit Committee of the Royal College of Surgeons.

Patient selection: elective abdominal aortic aneurysm

Outcome: in-hospital mortality

Parameters:

(1) type of surgical repair

(2) age in years

(3) gender

(4) serum creatinine in µmol/L

(5) cardiac disease

(6) ECG

(7) white blood cell count

(8) serum sodium concentration

(9) diameter of the aortic aneurysm in cm

(10) ASA fitness grade

(11) previous aortic surgery or stent

Parameter	Finding	Points
type of surgical repair	open	1.6466
	other	0
age in years		(0.0568 * (age))
gender	male	0
	female	0.7062
serum creatinine	<= 120 µmol/L	0
	> 120 µmol/L	0.5979
cardiac disease	no	0
	yes	0.3422
ECG	normal	0
	abnormal	0.3033
WBC	normal	0
	abnormal (< 3 or > 11 *10^9/L)	0.3697
serum sodium	normal	0
	abnormal (< 135 or > 145 mmol/L)	0.3099
diameter of aneurysm		(0.1285 * (diameter))
ASA grade	I	0
	II	0.2292
	III	0.7334
	IV	1.6775
previous aortic surgery or stent	no	0
	yes	0.8812

X =

= SUM(points for all 11 parameters) - 10.9187

probability of in-hospital mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Probability	Risk Group	Observed Mortality
<= 1.5%	low	0.8%
1.51 to 3.3%	medium	2.3%
> 3.3%	high	7%

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.78.

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Model of Grant et al for Predicting In-Hospital Death Following Elective Repair of an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (British Aneurysm Repair Score)

Description

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