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Model of Grant et al for 30-Day Mortality Following Elective Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair (Vascular Governance North West Model)

Description

Grant et al developed a model for predicting 30-day survival for a patient undergoing elective repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm. The authors are from the University of Manchester, University Hospital of South Manchester, Southport and Ormskirk NHS Hospitals and the Vascular Governance North West Programme in England.


Patient selection: elective abdominal aortic repair

 

Outcome: 30-day mortality

 

Parameters for logistic regression model:

(1) age in years

(2) gender

(3) diabetes mellitus

(4) serum creatinine in µmol/L

(5) respiratory disease

(6) antiplatelet medication

(7) open surgery

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

 

(0.0486 * (years))

gender

male

0

 

female

0.7322

diabetes mellitus

no

0

 

yes

0.6620

serum creatinine

 

(0.0073 * (creatinine))

respiratory disease

no

0

 

yes

0.4718

antiplatelet medications

no

0

 

yes

0.7762

open surgery

no

0

 

yes

1.3130

 

X =

= SUM(points for all 7 parameters) - 9.3431

 

probability of 30 day mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Mortality Risk

Risk Level

<= 3.5%

low

3.51 to 6.5%

medium

> 6.5%

high

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.70 to 0.73.


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