Goetzinger et al reported a model for predicting first trimester pre-eclampsia in a pregnant woman. The authors are from Washington University in St. Louis.
Patient selection: pregnant woman in first trimester
Parameters:
(1) chronic hypertension
(2) past history of pre-eclampsia
(3) pregestational diabetes
(4) body mass index in kg per square meter
(5) serum PAPP-A (pregnancy associated plasma protein A) as a multiple of the mean
(6) bilateral uterine artery diastolic notching on ultrasonography
Parameter
Finding
Points
chronic hypertension
no
0
yes
4
history of pre-eclampsia
no
0
yes
3
pregestational diabetes
no
0
yes
2
body mass index
< 30 kg per sq m
0
>= 30 kg per sq m
2
PAPP-A multiple of mean
>= 10th percentile
0
< 10th percentile
1
bilateral uterine artery notching
no
0
yes
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 13
• A score >= 6 is associated with first trimester pre-eclampsia.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.76.
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