Gabriel et al reported a logistic regression model for predicting extended postanesthesia care following outpatient surgery. The authors are from University of California San Diego.
Patient selection: outpatient surgery
Parameters:
(1) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(2) hypertension
(3) scheduled case duration in hours
(4) primary anesthesia type
(5) surgical subspecialty
Parameter
Finding
Points
BMI
< 40 kg per sq m
0
>= 40 kg per sq m
0.515
hypertension
no
0
yes
0.377
schedule case duration
0.472 * (hours)
primary anesthesia
monitored anesthesia care
0
general anesthesia
0.789
surgical subspecialty
general surgery
0
ENT
-1.010
gastroenterology
-0.504
ophthalmology
-2.170
plastic surgery
-0.776
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 2.426
probability of prolonged postanesthesia care =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.75.
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