Fu et al reported a model for predicting survival for a Chinese adult after a fragility fracture of the hip. The authors are from Third Hospital of Shanxi Medical University in China.
Patient selection: Chinese adult with fragility fracture
Outcome: 1-year survival
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) malignant tumor
(4) able to live independently
(5) cerebral infarction history
(6) surgery
(7) serum creatinine in µmol/L
(8) serum albumin in g/L
(9) hypertension
Parameter
Finding
Points
age
0.0421 * (age)
sex
female
0
male
0.3047
malignant tumor
no
0
yes
1
able to live independently
no
0
yes
-0.2721
cerebral infarction history
no
0
yes
0.3432
surgery
no
1.5734
yes
0
serum creatinine
0.008 * (creatinine)
serum albumin
-0.0819 * (albumin)
hypertension
no
0
yes
0.1713
where:
• The handling of surgery is slightly different from the text but is required to get the value shown by the example in Figure 4. According to the text, having surgery should be given -1.5734.
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
value of Y =
= EXP(X)
probability of survival at 1 year after fragility fracture =
= 0.984^(Y)
probability of mortality =
= 1 - (probability of survival)
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.80 (corrected value through internal validtion).
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