Freundlich et al reported a predictive model for reintubation of cardiac surgery patient within 48 hours. The authors are from Vanderbilt University.
Patient selection: cardiac surgery
Outcome: reintubation within 48 hours of post-operative extubation
Parameters:
(1) number of inotropes
(2) time to extubation in hours
(3) dexmedotomidine dose in µg/kg per hour
(4) increased in breaths per minute
Parameter
Findings
Points
number of inotropes
0
1
2.734
>= 2
4.139
time to extubation
0.036 * (hours) / 6
dexmedotomidine
1.111 * (dose)
respiratory rate
0.041 * (breaths per min)
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 6.949
probability of reintubation =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.86.
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Specialty: Anesthesiology, Surgery, general
