Model of Fischer et al for Predicting 30-Day Mortality Following Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery

Description

Fischer et al reported a model for predicting short-term mortality in patients undergoing plastic and reconstructive surgery. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management or a delay in surgery. The authors are from the University of Pennsylvania and Yale University.

Patient selection: plastic and reconstructive surgery

Outcome: 30-day mortality

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) status as inpatient vs outpatient

(3) hepatorenal disease (dialysis, acute renal failure, ascites, or varices)

(4) recent chemotherapy

(5) disability status

Parameter	Finding	Points
age in years	<= 65 years	0
	> 65 years	1
status	outpatient	0
	inpatient	1
hepatorenal disease	absent	0
	present	2
recent chemotherapy	no	0
	yes	2
disability status	independent	0
	partially dependent	1
	fully dependent	2

total score =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 8

Total Score	Risk Group	30-Day Mortality
0	low	0.02%
1	low	0.13%
2	intermediate	0.96%
3	high	5.1%
4 to 8	extreme	17.5%

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.93.

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Model of Fischer et al for Predicting 30-Day Mortality Following Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery

Description

Specialty