Description

Fabian et al developed a model for predicting delayed mortality after traumatic injury. This can help identify patients who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Tennessee in Memphis.


 

NOTE: Some of the parameters are the same as used by Siegel et al (above).

 

Patient selection: blunt trauma (exclusion if in full arrest)

 

Parameters (using admission data):

(1) Glasgow Coma Score (GCS)

(2) base excess in mmol/L (often a negative value, indicating acidosis)

(3) units of blood transfused in 24 hours for patient resuscitation

(4) Injury Severity Score (ISS)

(5) age in years

 

X =

= (0.04 * (age in years)) + (0.05 * (ISS)) + (0.08 * (units transfused)) - (0.08 * (base excess)) - (0.22 * (GCS)) - 3.48

 

probability of death =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 


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