Edlinger et al reported a model for predicting coronary artery occlusion based on the CARDIIGAN cohort. The authors are from multiple institutions in Austria, The Netherlands and Belgium.
Parameters:
(1) age in years from 35 to 85 years
(2) sex
(3) chest pain
(4) diabetes mellitus
(5) hypertension
(6) dyslipidemia
(7) ever smoked
(8) HDL cholesterol in mg/dL from 30 to 110 mg/dL
(9) LDL cholesterol in mg/dL from 50 to 250 mg/dL
(10) plasma fibrinogen in mg/dL from 200 to 800 mg/dL
(11) serum CRP in mg/dL
points for age =
= (2 * (age)) -70
points for HDL cholesterol =
= 66.4125 - (0.60375 * (HDLC))
points for LDL cholesterol =
= (0.1615 * (LDLC)) - 8.075
points for fibrinogen =
= (-0.000034812 * ((fibrinogen)^2)) + (0.075177 * (fibrinogen)) - 11.148
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
sex
|
male
|
37.9
|
|
|
female
|
0
|
|
chest pain
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
19
|
|
diabetes mellitus
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
15.7
|
|
hypertension
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
5.2
|
|
dyslipidemia
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
12.6
|
|
ever smoked
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
6.8
|
|
serum CRP
|
<= 1 mg/dL
|
0
|
|
|
> 1 mg/dL
|
4.5
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 309.2
X for >= 1 coronary artery involved =
= (0.028865 * (score)) - 5.5066
Y for >= 2 coronary arteries involved =
= (0.029057 * (score)) - 6.733
Z for 3 coronary arteries involved =
= (0.02891 * (score)) - 7.6517
probability =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * (factor))
