Description

Dormosh et al reported a model for predicting the risk of falls for an older adult in the community. This is based on primary care electronic health records. The authors are from the University of Amsterdam and VU University in The Netherlands.


Patient selection: community-dwelling adult >= 65 years of age

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) sex

(3) history of falls

(4) use of proton pump inhibitor

(5) use of opioids

(6) history of previous injury (not elaborated on)

(7) depression

(8) osteoarthritis

(9) urinary incontinence

(10) problems with memory or concentration

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age

 

0.06 * (age)

sex

male

0

 

female

0.26

history of falls

no

0

 

yes

0.72

use of proton pump inhibitor

no

0

 

yes

0.29

use of opioids

no

0

 

yes

0.24

history of previous injury

no

0

 

yes

0.35

depression

no

0

 

yes

0.54

osteoarthritis

no

0

 

yes

0.20

urinary incontinence

no

0

 

yes

0.36

memory or concentration problem

no

0

 

yes

0.41

 

value of X =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 6.92

 

probability of falls =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.71.


To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.