Model of Dellon et al for Eosinophilic Esophagitis

Description

Dellon et al reported a model for predicting eosinophilic esophagitis without the need for an endoscopic biopsy. The model can help to distinguish these patients from those with GERD. The authors are from the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

Patient selection: adult with symptoms of esophageal dysfunction (dysphagia, food impaction, heartburn, reflux, chest pain)

Analysis: logistic regression model

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) sex

(3) dysphagia

(4) food allergy

(5) rings on endoscopy

(6) furrows on endoscopy

(7) plaques on endoscopy

(8) hiatal hernia

Parameter	Findings	Points
age in years		-0.143057 * (age)
sex	female	0
	male	0.4286782
dysphagia	absent	0
	present	2.398077
food allergy	absent	0
	present	1.162278
rings	absent	0
	present	2.333837
furrows	absent	0
	present	3.077607
plaques	absent	0
	present	1.744886
hiatal hernia	absent	0
	present	-1.944498

X =

= SUM(points for all 8 parameters) - 1.944498

probability of eosinophilic esophagitis =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.89 (from Supplemental Table 1).

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Model of Dellon et al for Eosinophilic Esophagitis

Description

Specialty