Cook and Day reported a model for predicting hospital survival for an older adult undergoing urgent or emergent laparotomy. The authors are from Royal United Hospital (Bath) and Frenchay Hospital (Bristol) in the UK.
Patient selection: age >= 65 years, urgent or emergent laparotomy
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) invasive monitoring
(4) ICU admission
(5) ASA status, from 1 to 5
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
-0.137 * (age)
sex
female
-1.572
male
0
invasive monitoring
no
0
yes
-1.862
ICU admission
no
0
yes
-2.429
ASA status
-1.75 * (ASA)
value of X =
= 21.051 + SUM(points for all of the parameters)
probability of hospital survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve wsa 0.93.
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