Description

Clayton et al developed a risk model for prediction of death, myocardial infarction and stroke in a patient with stable angina. This can help identify patients who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the ACTION trial representing multiple investigators in Europe.


Patient selection: stable angina

 

Outcomes: acute myocardial infarction, stroke and/or death

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) gender

(3) left ventricular ejection fraction in percent

(4) smoking history

(5) white blood cell count

(6) diabetes mellitus

(7) glucose and diabetes

(8) serum creatinine

(9) history of a previous stroke

(10) angina frequency

(11) angiography

(12) lipid lowering therapy

(13) QT interval on ECG

(14) systolic blood pressure

(15) number of drugs taken for angina

(16) history of previous myocardial infarction

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

<= 60 years of age

0

 

> 60 years of age

0.055 * ((age) – 60)

gender

female

0

 

male

0.16

left ventricular ejection fraction

>= 60%

0

 

< 60%

0.034 * (60 – (LVEF))

smoking history

never

0

 

quit

0.12

 

current

0.60

white blood cell count

<= 5,000 per µL

0

 

> 5,000 per µL

0.068 * ((WBC in thousands) –5)

diabetes mellitus

no

0

 

non-insulin dependent

0.13

 

insulin dependent

0.85

glucose and diabetes

<= 100 mg/.dL and no diabetes

0

 

> 100 mg/dL and no diabetes

0.0072 * ((glucose) – 100)

 

<= 100 mg/dL and diabetes not insulin dependent

0

 

> 100 mg/dL and diabetes not insulin dependent

0.0032 * ((glucose) – 100)

 

insulin dependent

0

serum creatinine

< 1.15 mg/dL

0

 

>= 1.15 mg/dL

0.078 * ((creat) – 1.15) / 0.1

previous stroke

no

0

 

yes

0.53

angina frequency

less than once per week

0

 

>= 1 episode per week

0.22

angiography

not done

0.11

 

>= 3 vessels diseased

0.25 (left main counts as 2)

 

0 or 1 or 2

0

lipid lowering therapy

no

0.21

 

yes

0

QT interval

< 430 ms

0

 

>= 430 ms

0.23

systolic blood pressure

< 155 mm Hg

0

 

>= 155 mm Hg

0.21

drugs for angina

none

0

 

1

0.13

 

2

0.26

 

>= 3

0.39

history of previous MI

no

0

 

yes

0.4

 

risk score =

= SUM(points for all 16 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum risk score

• The higher the score the greater the risk of a complication within the next 5 years.

 

Risk Score

Probability of Complication within 5 Years

0 to 3.0

(3.152 * ((score)^2)) - (0.614 * (score)) + 0.719

3.0 to 4.5

(31.8 * (score)) - 68

4.5 to 5.75

(-13 * ((score)^2)) + (153.1 * (score)) – 350.7

> 5.75 100%

 


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