Chase et al developed 3 models for predicting bacteremia in patients in the Emergency Department. One model predicted the probability of MRSA bacteremia. The authors are from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston.
Patient selection: patient in the Emergency Department with suspected bacteremia
Parameters:
(1) suspected line infection
(2) end-stage renal disease (ESRD)
(3) tachypnea
(4) platelet count
(5) diabetes mellitus
(6) percent neutrophils in the differential count
Parameters
Finding
Points
suspected line infection
no
0
yes
1.58
end-stage renal disease
no
0
yes
1.35
tachypnea
no
0
yes
0.85
platelet count
>= 150,000 per µL
0
< 150,000 per µL
0.72
diabetes mellitus
no
0
yes
0.71
percent neutrophils
<= 80%
0
> 80%
0.52
where:
• Points are beta-coefficients for the model.
X =
= SUM(points for the 6 parameters) - 4.89
probability of MRSA bacteremia =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) *X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.73.
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