Cenzer et al reported a simple score for predicting one-year mortality following hip fracture. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of California San Francisco.
Patient selection: hip fracture
Outcome: 1-year mortality
Parameters:
(1) sex
(2) age in years
(3) congestive heart failure (CHF)
(4) difficulty preparing meals
(5) ability to drive
Parameter
Finding
Points
sex
female
0
male
2
age in years
< 90 years
0
>= 90 years
2
CHF
absent
0
present
2
difficulty preparing meals
absent
0
present
2
able to drive
no
1
yes
0
total score =
= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 9
• The higher the score the greater the mortality.
Score
Mortality
0
10%
1
14%
2
20%
3
27%
4
37%
5
45%
6
56%
7 to 9
66%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.73.
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