Cattran et al reported a model for predicting disease progression for a patient with idiopathic membranous nephropathy. The authors are from the University of Toronto , the Italian Idiopathic Membranous Nephropathy Group and Helsinki University.
Patient selection: idiopathic membranous nephropathy
Parameters:
(1) persistent proteinuria in grams per day (PP)
(2) slope of creatinine clearance over time
(3) initial creatinine clearance in mL per min per 1.73 square meters
(4) final creatinine clearance in mL per min per 1.73 square meters
slope of serum creatinine =
= ((final clearance) - (initial clearance)) / (number of months)
Parameter
Points
PP
0.3 * (PP)
slope
-0.3 * (slope)
creatine clearance
-0.05 * (initial creatinine)
X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) + 1.26
probability of advancing =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) *X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.89.
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Specialty: Nephrology
