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Model of Carrillo et al for Predicting Recurrence of a Parotid Carcinoma

Purpose: To estimate the risk of recurrence for a patient with a parotid gland carcinoma using the model of Carrillo et al.

Description

Carrillo et al developed a model for predicting recurrence of a carcinoma arising in the parotid gland. This can help identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Instituto Nacional de Cancerologia and Insituto Nacional de Cardiologia Ignacio Chavez in Mexico City.


Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) histologic differentiation

(3) TNM stage

(4) facial nerve palsy

(5) surgical margins

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

<= 29 years of age

0

 

30 to 55 years of age

1.678

 

>= 56 years of age

0.046

histologic differentiation

well-differentiated

0

 

moderately differentiated

1

 

poorly differentiated

1

 

undifferentiated

2.766

TNM stage

T1

0

 

T2

0

 

T3

0.452

 

T4 with facial nerve palsy

1.3

 

T4 without facial nerve palsy

2.264

surgical margins

negative

0

 

positive

1.102

 

where:

• A facial nerve palsy can arise from the surgery as well as tumor involvement. The usage here implies facial nerve dysfunction secondary to tumor involvement.

 

X =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 3.31

 

probability of recurrence =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10