Cao et al reported a model for predicting lymph mode metastases associated with prostate cancer. This can help to identify a patient who should have a lymph node dissection at the time of radical prostatectomy. The authors are from Bengbu Medical College, Sun Yat Sen University and Quingdao University.
Patient selection: Chinese male with prostate cancer with primary Gleason grade >= 3
Parameters:
(1) risk score based on 7 genetic biomarkers from 0 to 100 (CTNNAL1, ENSA, MAP6D1, MBD4, PRCC, SF3B2, TREML1)
(2) serum PSA in ng/mL from 0 to 150
(3) T stage
(4) primary Gleason grade
(5) secondary Gleason grade
points for risk score =
= 0.35 * (score)
points for PSA =
= (0.15 * (PSA)) + 4.5
Parameter
Finding
Points
T stage
T1
6
T2
10
T3
10
T4
100
primary Gleason grade
3
2
4
8
5
13.8
secondary Gleason grade
2
2.5
3
4.5
4
6.5
5
9
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 4.5
• maximum score: 187.1
Score
Probability of Lymph Node Metastases
< 18.6
< 1%
18.6 to 91
X = (0.15726 * (score)) - 7.6037
probability = 1/(1+EXP((-1)*X))
> 91
100%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.90.
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