Cao et al reported a model for predicting intraoperative blood transfusion for a patient undergoing partial hepatectomy. The authors are from Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital and Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou.
Patient selection: partial hepatectomy
Parameters:
(1) preoeprative hemoglobin in g/L
(2) prothrombin time in seconds
(3) serum total bilirubin in µmol/L
(4) respiratory disease
(5) cirrhosis
(6) maximum lesion diameter in cm
(7) macrovascular invasion
(8) history of previous abdominal surgery
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
preoperative hemoglobin
|
> 180 g/L
|
0
|
|
|
161 to 180 g/L
|
16.67
|
|
|
141 to 160 g/L
|
33.34
|
|
|
121 to 140 g/L
|
50
|
|
|
101 to 120 g/L
|
66.67
|
|
|
80 to 100 g/L
|
83.34
|
|
|
< 80 g/L
|
100
|
|
prothrombin time
|
<= 14 seconds
|
0
|
|
|
> 14 seconds
|
33.7
|
|
serum total bilirubin
|
<= 21 µmol/L
|
0
|
|
|
> 21 µmol/L
|
20.9
|
|
respiratory disease
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
40.3
|
|
cirrhosis
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
20.9
|
|
maximum lesion diameter
|
<= 5 cm
|
0
|
|
|
> 5 cm
|
20.9
|
|
macrovascular invasion
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
26.3
|
|
history abdominal surgery
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
16.8
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 279.7
value of X =
= (0.04723 * (score)) - 5.407
probability of transfusion =
= 1 / ( 1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.83.
