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Model of Breuer et al for Predicting Prolonged Hospitalization in a Pediatric Patient with Complicated Pneumonia

Description

Breuer et al identified factors associated with a prolonged hospitalization for a pediatric patient with complicated pneumonia. These can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center and the Hebrew University in Israel.


Patient selection: pediatric patient with complicated pneumonia (parapneumonic pleural effusion, empyema, necrotizing pneumonia, lung abscess)

 

Outcome: prolonged hospital length of stay (> 10 days)

 

Parameters:

(1) pleural fluid LDH in U/L

(2) pleural fluid glucose in mmol/L

 

X =

= (0.000034 * (LDH)) - (0.524 * (glucose)) + 1.033

 

probability of prolonged length of stay =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Alternatively the following patterns are associated with prolonged length of stay.

 

LDH in Pleural Fluid

Glucose in Pleural Fluid

> 1,000 U/L

< 1 mmol/L

> 2,000 U/L

< 2 mmol/L

> 3,000 U/L

< 3 mmol/L

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.77 for the derivation set and 0.82 for the validation set.


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