Biewenga et al reported a model for predicting transplant-free survival for a patient with autoimmune hepatitis Type I. The authors are from multiple institutions in the Netherlands and Belgium.
Patient selection: autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) Type I
Parameters:
(1) age in years at the time of AIH diagnosis
(2) ethnicity
(3) cirrhosis
(4) serum ALT in IU/L
(5) upper limit of normal (ULN) for serum ALT in IU/L
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
0.044 * (age)
ethnicity
Caucasian
0
other
0.640
cirrhosis
no
0
yes
1.184
serum ALT to ALT ULN ratio
-0.322 * LN(ratio)
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Time Period
Baseline Hazard
1
0.002468
5
0.01030
10
0.01953
survival probability for a given time period =
= 100 * EXP((-1)*(baseline hazard) * EXP(score))
Performance
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.74.
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