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Model of Barr Fritcher et al for Evaluating a Patient with a Pancreatobiliary Stricture for the Risk of Malignancy

Purpose: To evaluate a patient with a pancreatobiliary stricture using the model of Barr Fritcher et al.

Description

Barr Fritcher et al evaluated patients with pancreatobiliary strictures using several clinical and laboratory findings. The authors are from the Mayo Clinic.


Parameters:

(1) cytology diagnosis

(2) FISH findings

(3) age in years

(4) primary sclerosing cholangitis

 

The probability of malignancy was very high if one or both of the following is present:

(1) malignant cytology

(2) polysomy on FISH (>=3 signals for >= 2 probes, odds ratio 77.7)

 

If neither of these parameters were met, then the cumulative odds ratios can be calculated based on the multivariate model..

 

Parameter

Finding

Odds Ratio

FISH

trisomy

1.76

 

other

1

age in years

 

(1.02)^(age)

PSC

absent

1

 

present

0.43

cytology findings

suspicious

6.02

 

other

1

 

cumulative odds ratio =

= PRODUCT(odds ratio for the 4 parameters)


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10