Model of Archbald-Pannone et al for Predicting Mortality in Hospitalized Patients Infected with Clostridium difficile

Description

Archbald-Pannone et al developed a model for predicting mortality in hospitalized patients infected with Clostridium difficile. The model can help to identify patients who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Virginia at Charlottesville.

Patient selection: hospitalized patient with Clostridium difficile disease

Parameters:

(1) Charlson comorbidity index

(2) WBC count in 10^3 per µL

(3) serum BUN in mg/dL

(4) diagnosed in ICU

(5) delirium

Parameter	Findings	Points
Charlson comorbidity		2 * (CCI)
WBC count		3 * LN((WBC)/1000))
BUN in mg/dL		5 * LN(BUN)
diagnosed in ICU	no	0
	yes	5
delirium	no	0
	yes	11

total score =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)

Score	Probability of Mortality
0 to 30	(0.008 * ((score)^2)) - (0.044 * (score)) + 0.16
30 to 70	(0.02257 * ((score)^2)) - (0.3491 * (score)) - 4.69
70 to 100	(-0.0175 * ((score)^2)) + (3.625 * (score)) - 87.75

Alternatively

X =

= (0.09992 * (score)) - 5.701

probability of mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Alternatively (from Table 2)

X =

= (0.205 * (CCI)) + (0.316*LN(WBC/1000)) + (0.49*LN(BUN)) + (0.495 if diagnosed in ICU) + (1.079 if delirious) - 5.765

probability of mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

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Description

Specialty

ICD-10