Method of Singal et al for Prediction of Pneumonia in the Emergency Department

 

Clinical Findings:

(1) cough

(2) fever

(3) crackles

 

probability of pneumonia =

= 1 / (1 + EXP(-Y))

 

Value of Y	physician pretest probability not known	physician pretest probability known
children	Y = (-1.242) + (1.442 * (crackles))	Y = (-1.960) + (1.040 * (crackles)) + (0.027 * (probability))
adults	Y = (-3.095) + (1.214 * (cough)) + (1.007 * (fever)) + (0.823 * (crackles))	Y = (-3.539) + (0.884 * (cough)) + (0.681 * (fever)) + (0.464 * (crackles)) + (0.030 * (probability))

 

where:

• cough = 0 if cough absent, cough = 1 if cough present

• fever = 0 if fever absent, fever = 1 if fever present

• crackles = 0 if crackles absent, crackles = 1 if crackles present

• physician pretest probability is given before chest X-ray performed; it is a percent that ranges from 0 to 100 (not 0 to 1.0)

 

Limitations:

• Performance of the model could not improve above that of an experienced clinician evaluating the patient.