Kartoun et al reported the MELD-Plus score for accurate prediction of mortality of a patient with cirrhosis. This can be simplified by removal of 2 of the 9 parameters. The authors are from Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts General Hospital and IBM Research.
Patient selection: adult with a cirrhosis-related hospital admission
Difference from complete model: removal of total cholesterol and length of stay (nights)
Parameters:
(1) serum total bilirubin in mg/dL
(2) serum creatinine in mg/dL
(3) serum albumin in g/dL
(4) INR
(5) WBC count in 10^3/µL
(6) age in years
(7) serum sodium in mmol/L
Parameter
Points
serum total bilirubin
2.06503238 * LOG10(1 + (total bilirubin))
serum creatinine
2.5967965 * LOG10(1 + (creatinine))
serum albumin
-6.34990436 * LOG10(1 + (albumin))
INR
2.99724802* LOG10(1 + (INR))
WBC count
1.92811726* LOG10(1 + (WBC))
age in years
0.04070442 * (years)
serum sodium
-6.47834101 * LOG10(1 + (sodium))
where:
• There are 2 ways to handle the WBC count - per µL vs 10^3 per µL. The latter is used in the implementation since those units are shown in Table 1.
score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) + 8.53499496
probability of 90-day mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * (score)))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.77.
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