Description

Sarmast et al reported a nomogram for predicting mortality for a patient with cirrhosis or chronic liver disease. The authors are from Baylor University Medical Center, Mayo Clinic, Institute of Liver and Biliary Disease (New Delhi), University of Michigan, Virginia Commonwealth University, University of Alberta, University of Toronto, University of Pennsylvania and Dallas VA Medical Center.


Patient selection: chronic liver disease, cirrhosis

 

Parameters:

(1) MELD score, from 5 to 40

(2) serum lactate in mmol/L, from 0 to 28

 

MELD

Points

5 to 10

(0.084 * (Meld)) - 0.42

10 to 15

(0.196 * (Meld)) - 1.54

15 to 40

(-0.00438 * ((Meld)^2)) + (0.6358 * (Meld)) - 7.188

 

 

Lactate

Points with Y = SQRT(lactate)

0 to 2

1.624 * Y

2 to 10

(-1.127 * (Y^2)) + (11.72 * Y) - 12.08

10 to 28

(0.588*(Y^2)) + (0.2845 * Y) + 6.881

 

score =

= (points for MELD) + (points for lactate)

 

value of X =

= (0.1874 * (score)) - 3.463

 

probability of mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))


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