Li et al reported an equation for predicting severe acute pancreatitis based on logistic regression analysis. This can help to identify a patient who should receive more aggressive management. The authors are from Shangluo Center Hospital in Shangluo, China.
Parameters (units not reported in article), collected within 24 hours of admission:
(1) absolute neutrophil count (ANC) in 10^9/L
(2) serum albumin in g/L
(3) blood glucose in mmol/L
(4) serum calcium in mmol/L
(5) serum creatinine in µmol/L
(6) blood urea in mmol/L
(7) serum procalcitonin, presumably ng/mL
Parameter
Points
absolute neutrophil count
0.180 * (ANC)
serum albumin
-0.077 * (albumin)
blood glucose
0.065 * (glucose)
serum calcium
-0.990 * (calcium)
serum creatinine
0.018 * (creatinine)
blood urea
0.164 * (urea)
serum procalcitonin
0.165 * (PCT)
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) -3.199
risk of severe acute pancreatitis =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
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