Description

Alcazar and Jurado developed a logistic model for predicting whether an adnexal mass was malignant or not. This can help to identify a patient who should be fully investigated. The authors are from the University of Navarre in Pamplona, Spain.


 

Parameters:

(1) score of Sassone et al

(2) blood flow and resistance index (RI)

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

score of Sassone et al

< 9 (not suspicious)

0

 

>= 9 (suspicious)

1

blood flow

none

0

 

flow with resistance index > 0.45

0

 

flow with RI <= 0.45

1

 

value of X =

= (4.263 * (points for Sassone score)) + (3.095 * (points for blood flow)) - 5.002

 

probability of a malignant adnexal mass =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Interpretation:

• The minimum probability was 1%.

• The maximum probability was 91%.

• An adnexal mass with a probability >= 75% was interpreted as being probably malignant.

• An adnexal mass with a probability < 75% was assumed to be benign.

 

Performance:

• 2 of 13 malignant tumors had a probability < 75%.

• None of the benign tumors had a probability >= 75%.

• The sensitivity was 85% and specificity 100%.

• The positive predictive value was 100% while the negative predictive value was 96%.

 


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