Aminian et al reported a risk model for a patient undergoing laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG). This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the Cleveland Clinic.
Patient selection: laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG)
Endpoint: any of 14 serious adverse events within 30 days after surgery (see Table 2)
Parameters:
(1) diabetes
(2) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(3) sex
(4) congestive heart failure (CHF)
(5) corticosteroid use
(6) serum total bilirubin in mg/dL
(7) hematocrit in percent
Parameter
Finding
Points
diabetes
no
0
yes
0.487
BMI
0.0307 * (BMI)
sex
male
0.517
female
CHF
1.83
corticosteroid use
1.61
serum total bilirubin
0.451 * (bilirubin)
hematocrit
-0.054 * (hematocrit)
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 3.497
probability of composite adverse event =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.68.
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Specialty: Gastroenterology
