Identification of Patients with Severe Acute Pancreatitis Using the Prognostic Factors of Fan et al

 

Parameters:

(1) serum urea

(2) plasma glucose

 

Parameter	Finding	Points
serum urea	<= 7.4 mmol/L	0
	> 7.4 mmol/L	1
plasma glucose	<= 11.0 mmol/L	0
	> 11.0 mmol/L	1

 

number of indicators for severe pancreatitis =

= (points for serum urea) + (points for plasma glucose)

 

X =

= (0.3558 * (serum urea)) + (0.227 * (plasma glucose)) - 5.948

 

probability of severe pancreatitis =

= EXP(X) / (1 + EXP(X))

 

Interpretation:

• minimum number of indicators: 0

• maximum number of indicators: 2

• The presence of one indicator is associated with a significant risk for severe pancreatitis.

 

Performance:

• Sensitivity for prediction of complications 79% with specificity of 67% and overall accuracy of 70%.

 

Limitations:

• The normal reference ranges and methods were not given for serum urea or glucose, although most methods should give similar values.