Hindsight bias occurs when knowledge of an event alters the recollection of conditions before the event occurred.

Hindsight bias may overlap with outcome bias (where the quality of the outcome colors the interpretation of events).


Hindsight bias may involve:

(1) changing the recollection of a pre-event response to match the post-event findings

(2) failure to recall pre-event conditions that are discordant with actual events

(3) clear perception of a situation after the event in contrast to lack of perception prior to the event (overestimation of what was anticipation)


Hindsight bias may be reduced:

(1) retrieval of knowledge prior to feedback about an event (and writing things down)

(2) with greater experience and more comprehensive knowledge in foresight

(3) engaging in less sense-making over an unexpected result

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