Schneider et al developed a simple score for predicting the risk of heterotopic ossification in a burn patient. The authors are from multiple institutions in the United States and the University of Oxford in England.
Patient selection: burn injury
Outcome: heterotopic ossification
Parameters:
(1) percent of body surface area with partial and full thickness burns
(2) arm graft
(3) head and/or neck graft
(4) trunk graft
Parameter
Finding
Points
percent of BSA with burns
<= 10%
0
11-20%
2
21-30%
4
31-40%
6
41-60%
7
61-80%
8
81-90%
9
> 90%
10
arm graft
no
0
yes
1
head/neck graft
no
0
yes
1
trunk graft
no
0
yes
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 13
• The higher the score the greater the risk of heterotopic ossification.
Score
Risk
0 to 4
0%
5
1.4%
6
2%
7
3.6%
8
5.4%
9
7%
10
15%
11
34%
12
50%
13
71%
Performance:
• The authors report an area under the ROC curve of 0.92.
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