Marsh et al developed the hemorrhagic risk stratification (HeRS) score for predicting hemorrhagic transformation an ischemic stroke. The authors are from the Johns Hopkins University and Bayview Medical Center in Baltimore.
Patient selection: acute ischemic stroke
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) volume in mL
(3) eGFR in mL per min per 1.73 square meter
eGFR
Points
> 60
0
30 to 59
1
< 30
2
X =
= (0.0120706 * (volume in mL)) + (0.5939482 * (points for eGFR)) + (0.0266442 * (age)) - 3.823563
probability of hemorrhagic transformation =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.70.
• The authors reference an unpublished model under development called HeRS Plus which adds glucose, white blood cell count and warfarin therapy.
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