Description

Schulze et al developed a risk score for predicting the risk of diabetes in Germans. This can help identify a person who may benefit from closer monitoring and preventive interventions. The authors are from the German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, German Cancer Research Center Heidelberg, and other institutions in Germany.

Patient selection: 25,000 men and women aged 35-65 years

Parameters:

(1) waist circumference in cm

(2) height in cm

(3) age in years

(4) hypertension

(5) red meat consumption in grams per day

(6) whole-grain bread intake in grams per day

(7) coffee intake in grams per day

(8) alcohol intake

(9) physical activity in hours per week (of biking, sports, gardening, etc.)

(10) smoking status

Parameter

Finding

Points

hypertension

absent

0

present

46

alcohol intake

moderate (10-40 grams per day)

- 20

other

0

smoking status

former smoker

24

current heavy smoker (>= 20 cigarettes per day)

64

never smoker

0

where:

• It is unclear if the coffee intake is based on black coffee vs with additives.

• The coffee intake is reported in grams, which corresponds to about 1 mL based on the density of water (which is why any coffee additives are important).

• I assume that the red meat weight is after being trimmed.

• 50 grams of white bread is about 2 slices. 50 grams of a dense, multi-grain bread is probably 1 slice.

• Should a current light smoker be given a value between 24 and 64 (? 44)?

• The handling of red meat, bread, and coffee is based on Table 1, page 512.

• It is interesting that body weight and gender are not used as risk factors.

German diabetes risk score =

= (7.4 * (waist circumference in cm)) - (2.4 * (height in cm)) + (4.3 * (age in years)) + (49 * (red meat intake in grams) / 150) - (9 * (bread intake in grams) / 50) - (4 * (coffee intake in grams) / 150) - (2 * (hours of physical activity per week)) + SUM(points for the other parameters)

X =

= EXP((German score) / 100)

probability of Type 2 diabetes being diagnosed within the next 5 years =

= 1 - (0.999854^X)