Fox et al reported a number of models for predicting outcomes for a patient with atrial fibrillation. Some models were predictive of all-cause mortality. The authors are from multiple institutions in Europe, Japan, Turkey, Canada, and the United States. Data was from the GARFIELD registry.
Patient selection: atrial fibrillation
Parameters:
(1) sex of the patient
(2) heart failure
(3) vascular disease
(4) history of prior stroke
(5) history of bleeding
(6) diabetes
(7) chronic kidney disease (CKD)
(8) dementia
(9) current smoking
(10) oral anticoagulant therapy (non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant = NOAC; vitamin K antagonist = VKA)
(11) race or ethnic group
(12) age of the patient in years
(13) body weight in kilograms
(14) heart rate in beats per minute
(15) diastolic blood pressure
|
Parameter |
Findings |
Points |
|
sex of the patient |
male |
0 |
|
|
female |
-0.306202287 |
|
heart failure |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
0.693789082 |
|
vascular disease |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
0.306120964 |
|
history of prior stroke |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
0.26585298 |
|
history of bleeding |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
0.385407386 |
|
diabetes |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
0.280133213 |
|
chronic kidney disease |
none or mild |
0 |
|
|
moderate or severe |
0.377903886 |
|
dementia |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
0.489453313 |
|
current smoking |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
0.345481149 |
|
oral anticoagulation |
no |
0 |
|
|
NOAC |
-0.414591263 |
|
|
vitamin K antagonist |
-0.18593561 |
|
race or ethnic group |
white |
0 |
|
|
Hispanic or Latino |
0.157023564 |
|
|
Asian |
-0.609609055 |
|
|
black |
0.375675102 |
|
|
mixed |
0.375675102 |
|
|
other |
0.375675102 |
|
age of the patient |
<= 65 years |
0.031050027 * ((age) - 65) |
|
|
> 65 years |
0.064594824 * ((age) - 65) |
|
body weight |
<= 75 kilograms |
-0.021535182*((weight) - 75) |
|
|
> 75 kilograms |
0 |
|
heart rate |
<= 120 beats per minute |
0.007678035 * ((pulse) - 120) |
|
|
> 120 beats per minute |
0 |
|
diastolic blood pressure |
<= 80 mm Hg |
-0.019304333 * ((DBP) - 80) |
|
|
> 80 mm Hg |
0 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
2-year risk of all-cause mortality =
= 100 * (1 - (0.962450119^(EXP(total score))))
Specialty: Cardiology
